Funds flow into North and Southeast Asia as geopolitical risk rattles markets

Global investors are reallocating capital toward perceived stability, with North and Southeast Asian markets experiencing a significant influx of funds. Despite persistent geopolitical tensions, money is flowing into the region in search of stronger returns and reduced volatility.

Data from Bloomberg reveals a substantial $3.3 billion has entered North and Southeast Asian equities this January alone, marking the largest monthly inflow since September. This trend is part of a broader move into emerging markets, with global ETF flows hitting $7.15 billion for the week ending January 16, approximately 75% of which was directed into Asia-focused funds. Bond markets are also attracting capital, with $3.7 billion flowing into debt in India, South Korea, Indonesia, and Thailand.

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"Emerging Asia is positioned to outperform broader EM this year, even amid heightened geopolitical uncertainty," said a strategist from Aberdeen Investments, citing factors like AI sector growth and regional credit conditions. The firm has increased its exposure to Taiwanese and South Korean equities, anticipating direct benefits from AI-driven expansion.

The regional rally is underpinned by robust earnings expectations. Forecasts indicate earnings per share for companies in emerging Asia could surge 30% over the next year, outperforming projections for Latin America (17%) and Eastern Europe (29%). This fundamental strength has propelled regional stocks to a 6% gain in 2026, significantly outpacing the 1.7% rise in the MSCI World Index.

China continues to act as a stabilizing force for the region. Despite domestic economic pressures, the country's record $1.2 trillion trade surplus and stable yuan provide a crucial anchor. Analysts note a strong correlation between the yuan and other regional currencies like the baht and Korean won. "The yuan is an anchor for regional FX stability," noted an analyst from T. Rowe Price, who expects the currency to appreciate gradually alongside the trade surplus.

This capital rotation highlights a strategic shift where investors are distinguishing between geopolitical noise and fundamental economic resilience, placing their bets on Asia's combined stability and growth potential.

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